Despite economic and trade policy uncertainty and a disruptive geopolitical landscape, infrastructure assets remain well positioned heading into 2026, according to Sarah Shaw, CEO and global portfolio manager at 4D Infrastructure.

In 4D’s recently released Global Matters – 2026 outlook Shaw says there is a sense of ‘controlled uncertainty’ for investors at the start of 2026, but infrastructure remains one of the few asset classes offering both resilience and selective growth.

“Infrastructure allows diversification across user pays and regulated assets, meaning investors can take advantage of different opportunities across regions while still being cognisant of the nuances of political and monetary policies. Infrastructure’s blend of inflation linked revenues, contracted cash flows, and regulated return frameworks provides ballast for investors’ portfolios, while still offering cyclical upside where domestic demand, growth thematics and policy support are strongest.”

Looking ahead, Shaw says that globally, policy uncertainty, trade rewiring, and geopolitics is keeping risk levels for investors relatively high, but not decisively bearish, and solid global growth remains the base case.

“Overall, we believe there is sufficient growth to support earnings and investment plans, even if there are more potential policy surprises and variations between regions that will create further volatility in the global market,” she says.

AI, global trade, fiscal stance and geopolitics remain key economic themes for infrastructure in 2026, says 4D Infrastructure investment director, Tim Snelgrove.

“Investment in AI is set to continue to increase in 2026. It is estimated that in the US alone tech capex is forecasted to reach US$500 billion this year. This is driving a lot of construction-led activity in the market to accommodate the power capacity requirements needed to service increasing demand for AI. However, this narrative could quickly turn from tailwind to headwind if the availability and affordability of power, and debt funding models and returns get stretched,” Snelgrove says.

Trade and tariff uncertainty also remains, particularly for global supply chains.

“Peak fear in markets has passed following the introduction of President Trump’s tariffs in April 2025. However, the full implication of tariffs may only come into light this year, especially if existing transshipment workarounds are curtailed,” says Snelgrove.

In bond markets, term premiums are keeping long term bond yields high, despite the Fed continuing its easing cycle into 2026.

“The USD remains under pressure due to persistent policy uncertainty. In addition, the ‘TACO trade’ persists – as seen again last week on the matter of Greenland.

“Elsewhere, Germany’s fiscal loosening and heavier issuance has steepened bond curves, while Japan’s stimulus has pushed yields to multi decade highs,” he says.

Conflicts from the Ukraine to the Middle East remain potential catalysts, but the November US midterms will be a major focus this year, says Snelgrove.

“History suggests the sitting President’s party tends to lose House seats, and with a razor thin majority that raises the probability of a divided government. The question is whether the Trump Administration seeks to dampen volatility into November or escalates disruptive proposals,” says Snelgrove.

Despite these uncertainties, the case for global infrastructure assets remains strong, as it offers global, multi sector diversification, enabling active positioning by region and cycle.

“In a world of high term premiums, an uneven inflation outlook, and episodic policy shocks, we favour three broad areas in the market: regulated networks with approved investment roadmaps & constructive regulation across Europe, North America & EMs, selective user-pays assets in stable policy environments, and targeted emerging market exposure where regulation or long-term concessions provide insulation from macro volatility.”

“While near-term uncertainty will persist, we remain optimistic about the long-term fundamentals underpinning global infrastructure,” Shaw says.