Over the week, the net number of financial advisers only increased by one, this is despite 10 new entrants commencing. This highlights that a net of nine experienced advisers ceased. Two new licensees commenced and none ceased. A total of 54 advisers were affected by resignations / appointments.

For a second week in a row, not one licensee owner increased by more than one adviser.

Is this the calm before the storm? The past few weeks of reporting has shown the adviser market to be relatively flat with just a few key movements per week. We all know this will soon change as we head into the last month of the calendar year and start 2026 with new education requirements for advisers.

Looking at additional data from ASIC with regards to the Experienced Pathway and 2026 qualifications, indications are that a large number of advisers will exit – see below further details.

Key adviser movements for this period

• Net change of advisers +1
• Current number of advisers 15,459
• Net change calendar 2025 YTD (-12)

• Net change 2025 YTD of +143 when excluding licensees that provide mostly limited SMSF advice

• Net change financial YTD (2025/26) +289

• Net change Financial YTD +306 when excluding licensees that provide mostly limited SMSF advice

• 27 licensee owners had net gains of 27 advisers
• 19 licensee owners had net losses for (-25) advisers
• 2 new licensees, and none ceased
• 10 new entrants

Growth – licensee owners

• All licensee owners that gained advisers increased by just one, including Spark Partnership Group, Shartru and Rhombus. Both new licenses commenced with one adviser each.
• Centrepoint, currently the third largest advice group, also added one new adviser (a new entrant) and are now at 587 advisers, just two behind Count Limited with 589. Entireti & Akumin Group are at 1,104 advisers.

Losses – licensee owners

• Sequoia Group is down by three, with one commencing their own licensee, and the remaining two advisers yet to be appointed elsewhere
• Four licensee owners are down by two each:

• Capstone Financial - both advisers not appointed elsewhere to date
• Cobalt Advisers - one switching to RI Advice owned by Rhombus, the other not appointed elsewhere
• GPG Unit Pty Ltd (Godfrey Pembroke) - both advisers switching to Findex
• River X, one switching to Advisory Circle Pty Ltd and the other yet to be appointed elsewhere.

• A short tail of 14 licensee owners down by net one each including Entireti & Akumin Group, Finchley and Kent, and Shaw and Partners.

Experienced pathway analysis – adviser losses and consequences

ASIC recently released another one-time extract of the FAR, showing how many advisers plan to use the EP and details on adviser qualifications needed for 2026. We have analysed this data and provided an indication has to how many advisers might stay on the FAR in Jan 2026.

Our ongoing analysis of ASIC’s ‘one-off, point-in-time’ Financial Adviser Register (FAR) data, highlighting the advisers progression with the Experienced Pathway and 2026 qualifications, now paints the clearest picture yet of the seismic shift heading toward the financial advice profession.

With the 1 January 2026 education standards rapidly approaching, the data shows the financial adviser market is on the verge of a significant contraction and one that will redefine adviser capacity, business models, and consumer access to advice.

Comparing ASIC’s November point-in-time data with today’s FAR, we have identified the three clear adviser cohorts (see also chart below):

• 5,179 advisers intend to use the Experienced Pathway (EP)
• 6,469 advisers say they will not use the EP
• 3,981 advisers have provided no information

The responses above total 15,629 adviser entries, exceeding the actual adviser population of 15,459 due to multi-authorised advisers supplying conflicting data to ASIC. Note: We adjust for these duplicates in the “No Info” segment.

We have also broken the data down further into sectors by commencement dates of advisers, to assist in determining the potential of additional advisers who may be able to proceed with the EP. We have also segmented by qualifications, noting that ASIC’s “qualification progressing toward standards” flag does not guarantee an adviser will be fully qualified for 2026.

Our analysis breaks the data into three core segments:

A — Advisers intending to use the experienced pathway

• 5,179 advisers have said they will rely on the EP
• 59 advisers passed the Financial Adviser Exam after the cut-off (Oct 2022) to qualify for the EP
• 183 advisers appear to have commenced after Jan 2011 (potentially ineligible)

FAR commencement dates can be unreliable, so EP declarations will be the stronger indicator — but not all who said “Yes” will qualify.

B — Advisers who will not use the EP

• 6,469 advisers have declared they will not use the EP, and 91 per cent hold qualifications counting toward 2026.
• This group appears relatively stable

Together, cohorts A and B total 11,648 advisers and we would expect the greater majority to continue into 2026

C — No info - advisers who have not declared their intentions

• After adjusting for duplicates, some 3,811 advisers fall into the “No Info” category:
• 1,523 advisers potentially qualify for the EP (commenced pre-Dec 2011)
• An additional 1,396 advisers with qualifications that indicate they may progress toward 2026
• 2919 advisers in this cohort may able to proceed into 2026.

This group remains the largest uncertainty.

Padua’s forecast for 2026

• A ‘best case’ adviser population of 14,567 and this is currently 892 fewer than today’s total of 15,459.
• When a series of ‘what if’ scenarios are performed, the net loss can easily jump in excess of 1,600.
• Adding together the most realistic outcomes across all categories the net loss range will be between 1,100 and 1,500.

Factors that can distort the numbers

• The traditional December resignation spike
• Advisers gaining qualifications only to exit shortly after - this occurred when the first ‘FASEA’ Financial Adviser Exams commenced
• EP declarations failing due to service periods being checked
• November Financial Adviser exam resulting in a surge of new entrants helping to soften the losses
• Last-minute December FAR updates distorting the current view of the data

What this means for the advice profession

A significant drop in advisers will have immediate implications:

• Higher client loads per adviser
• Longer turnaround times for advice
• Increased cost-to-serve pressures
• A fight for new advisers and to bring back experienced advisers
• Reduced consumer access to professional advice.

We expect that advisers and licensees will seek need to leverage an advice generation platform that:

• Produces high-quality, compliant advice quickly
• Enables advisers to scale from 100 clients to 200+ without additional staff
• Eliminates administrative drag
• Reduces the cost of producing advice
• Improves turnaround times
• Supports consistent, repeatable, defendable advice at scale

A highly efficient advice generation is no longer a “nice to have”.